UK elections 2024: Muslim vote decisive in around 100 constituencies

The British-Muslim vote could play a crucial role in around 100 constituencies including in majority of swing seats around the country, new research has found.

A new campaign group called “The Muslim Vote” and the right-wing “Henry Jackson Society” (HJS) have put the number of seats at 92 and 120 respectively, stating that the population is more than 10% Muslims in around 100 seats.

The Henry Jackson Society’s research on religious diversity in UK constituencies puts the number at 120 where Muslim vote can play a major role, especially in swing seats.

The HJS said that of the 220 most marginal seats in the general election, Islam is the largest minority religion in 129 of them (58.6%); the second largest minority religion in marginal seats is Hinduism in 23 of them (10.5%), followed by Sikhism in six marginal seats (2.7%), and Judaism in three (1.4%).

The swing seats were identified by the political consultancy Electoral Calculus, which defines a marginal seat as one where the margin of victory is expected to be 10% or less.

The 220 marginal seats at the general election make up a third (33.8%) of all available seats. Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, said that the results of their most recent MRP poll with Savanta found that religion is a “significant factor” in how people vote.

A demonstration of this came when in the local elections earlier this year, dozens of candidates around the country ran on a Gaza ticket and defeated their Labour rivals — dealing a huge blow to the Labour in areas it took for granted for decades.

Labour votes plummeted in areas with a high Muslim population including Blackburn, Bradford, Pendle, Oldham, Luton, London and Manchester. If the same pattern is repeated at the July 4 elections at the hands of the Gaza candidates, the Labour support will collapse further in these areas.

The Muslim Vote, a campaign group set up by grassroots Muslim organisations, to encourage Muslim voting participation has identified around 92 seats where the Muslim voters are above 10% of the total vote.

However, all agree that Muslims are a diverse group and don’t vote in unison or en block. They are divided on political, ethnic and sectarian lines.

Geo News has prepared the following list of constituencies:

1-Bradford West (54%)

2-Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley (49%)

3-East Ham (43%)

4-Blackburn (42%)

5-Birmingham Ladywood (42%)

6-Bethnal Green and Stepney (40%)

7-Dewsbury and Batley (39%)

8-Bradford East (39%)

9-Birmingham Perry Barr (38%)

10-Ilford South (37%)

11-Birmingham Yardley (37%)

12-Birmingham Hodge Hill (33%)

13-Leicester South (31%)

14-Poplar and Limehouse (30%)

15-Oldham West (28%)

6-Manchester Rusholme (27%)

17-Stratford and Bow (27%)

18-Slough (27%)

19-Luton North (27%)

20-Ilford North (27%)

21-Luton South and South Bedfordshire (26%)

22-Rochdale (26%)

23-Barking (24%)

24-Gorton and Denton (24%)

25-Brent East (23%)

26-Leicester East (22%)

27-West Ham and Beckton (22%)

28-Queen’s Park and Maida Vale (21%)

29-Walthamstow (21%)

30-Bolton South and Walkden (21%)

31-Edmonton and Winchmore Hill (20%)

32-Leyton and Wanstead (20%)

33-Walsall and Bloxwich (19%)

34-Huddersfield (18%)

35-Hayes and Harlington (17%)

36-Ealing North (17%)

37-Bradford South (17%)

38-Oldham East and Saddleworth (17%)

39-Ealing Southall (17%)

40-Derby South (16%)

41-Burnley (16%)

42-Wycombe (16%)

43-Preston (16%)

44-Smethwick (16%)

45-Holborn and St Pancras (16%)

46-Enfield North (15%)

47-Harrow West (15%)

48-Feltham and Heston (15%)

49-Brent West (15%)

50-Brentford and Isleworth (15%)

51-Peterborough (15%)

52-Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough (15%)

53-Bolton North East (14%)

54-Ealing Central and Acton (14%)

55-Hendon (14%)

56- Halifax (14%)

57-Nottingham East (14%)

58-Tottenham (14%)

59-Manchester Central (13%)

60-Harrow East (13%)

61-Pendle and Clitheroe (13%)

62-Birmingham Edgbaston (13%)

63-Southgate and Wood Green (13%)

64-Blackley and Middleton South 13%)

65-Keighley and Ilkley (13%)

66-Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West (12%)

67-Hyndburn (12%)

68-Croydon West (12%)

69-Hackney North and Stoke Newington (12%)

70-Dagenham and Rainham (12%)

71-Cities of London and Westminster (12%)

72-Coventry East (11%)

73-Sheffield Central (11%)

74-Leeds North East (11%)

75-Birmingham Erdington (11%)

76-Chingford and Woodford Green (11%)

77-Middlesbrough and Thornaby East (11%)

78-Kensington and Bayswater (11%)

79-Mitcham and Morden (11%)

80-Hackney South and Shoreditch (11%)

81-Watford (10%)

82-Leeds East (10%)

83-Hampstead and Highgate (10%)

84-Birmingham Selly Oak (10%)

85-Sheffield South East (10%)

86-Stretford and Urmston (10%)

87-Bury North (10%)

88-Streatham and Croydon North (10%)

89-Hammersmith and Chiswick (10%)

90-Uxbridge and South Ruislip (10%)

91-Islington North 10%). Watford (10%)

92-Leeds East (10%)

93-Hampstead and Highgate (10%)

94-Birmingham Selly Oak (10%)

95-Sheffield South East (10%)

96-Stretford and Urmston (10%)

97-Bury North (10%)

98-Streatham and Croydon North (10%)

99-Hammersmith and Chiswick (10%)

100-Manchester Withington (11%)