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Uzair Younus proves claims of senior journalists wrong regarding dollar value

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Uzair Younus, PKR, Pakistani rupee, US dollar

Economic expert Uzair Younus has proved the claims of senior journalists including Hamid Mir, Asma Shirazi and Asad Toor ‘wrong’ regarding the value of the US dollar.

Yesterday, the rupee made a strong recovery in the interbank market, rising by Rs9.59 against the dollar — its highest single-day gain ever. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said the rupee closed at Rs228.80, up 4.19 per cent, compared to yesterday’s close of Rs238.38.

Commenting on the developments, Asad Toor said, “Free fall of dollar continues, 13 rupees down in a day and trading on 224 rupees per dollar in interbank. Understand the difference of impact in decisions of 3 member bench of #SupremeCourt led by CJP #JusticeUmarAtaBandial and 3 member bench of #ECP led by CEC.”

Responding to Toor’s statement, an economic expert Uzair Younus, who is the director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and host of the podcast Pakistonomy, said, “Bhai @AsadAToor PKR is strong today as exporters are closing open $ positions. Not everything happens because market feels X or Y about political actions. Today’s currency moves are primarily driven by market action, not politics.”

Senior anchorperson Hamid Mir has also linked the fall of dollar to the verdict of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) against Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in the prohibited funding case.

Asma Shirazi wrote on Twitter that the fall of dollar was a satisfactory development and petrol products prices should also be reduced as per global market changes.

Uzair Younus tweeted about the currency market, saying, “The value of the PKR is highly correlated with the popularity of a govt in Pakistan. The dramatic appreciation of the PKR, should it continue over the next few days, may add wind to the sails of the coalition govt. Although how long this lasts is anybody’s guess.”

He added, “Here’s some data to back my argument on correlation (not causation). Citizens blame govts for inflation. A stable/stronger PKR brings price stability and eases inflation moving forward. The continued strength of the PKR should bring price stability, hence the earlier argument.”

Younus said in another tweet, “PS — there are no easy ways to measure popularity of a govt in Pakistan. The argument I’m making is that should the PKR strengthen / remain stable moving forward, the SS govt will become increasingly confident and stable. Dealing with the currency crisis helps PMLN, hurts PTI.”

He said, “Beyond a temporary reprieve due to avaibility of dollars (which may increase as IMF funds land), nothing has significantly changed in the structure of Pakistan’s political economy. Meaning that the factors driving economic chaos and uncertainty remain firmly in place.”

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