Syria is a mess, and it presents both new opportunities and significant risks, with implications for Israel and U.S. interests. On this newsletter you can read about some key developments that you need to know.
But first: Syrians living near Israel’s border want to come under Israeli control. Who could have believed this story had we not had the following picture, a video, and more details to back this development.
Israeli officers meet with a Syrian mayor, Dec. 2024. Credit: The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit.
Syrian Druze Want To Be Part Of Israel. First, this video clip circulated on social media that showed a village council meeting in Hader, a Druze town on the Syrian side of Golan Heights, where a community leader speaks and suggests annexation with Israel. And then we have the mayor of a Syrian Arab Druze town who comes to meet Israeli army officers, in the first formal contact between Israel and Syrian border community leaders in 50 years [details here].
Israel Helps Syrians Achieve Freedom. That’s right. Sustained Israeli action to weaken Hezbollah and Iranian militias helped topple the Syrian tyrant Assad and allowed the Syrians to end a 54-year-old regime. We’ve captured Israel’s positive role in some slides on Instagram. Please head there and share them. You can also find these graphics on our other social media pages.
Thank You, Israel! The Lebanese are celebrating freedom from Iran-backed Hezbollah militia. Palestinians can openly criticize Hamas. Syrians have reclaimed their country from Assads, and Iraqis are openly talking about disarming Iran-backed militias in their country. This would not have been possible without Israeli determination to act against Hamas and other militias that attacked Israel on October 7. American Jewish Congress Chairman Jack Rosen captured this in a pithy tweet (below), where he hopes a day will come when these nations can thank Israel for helping them gain freedom.
Israel’s Response To Syrian Crisis: Facts vs. Myths. Amid the chaos of Assad’s collapse, false narratives have emerged accusing Israel of exploiting the instability to seize Syrian territory. Here’s the truth:
Defense, Not Aggression: Israeli forces acted swiftly to secure the Golan Heights buffer zone after Syrian army troops abandoned their posts, leaving the area vulnerable to militants. The action was a temporary, proportionate response to protect Israel’s borders and ensure the safety of UN peacekeepers.
No March To Damascus: Contrary to alarmist claims, Israeli troops have not advanced beyond the UN-designated separation area. As Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani stated, “We are not involved in what’s happening in Syria internally… Our sole focus is protecting our borders.”
In Short: Israel’s measured actions align with the same principles guiding U.S. and Turkish military efforts in other parts of Syria: defending borders and countering terrorist threats.
The New Players in Syria: Emerging Threats. With Assad gone, the power vacuum is rapidly being filled by new actors. Here are the ones to watch:
Turkey-Backed Islamist Groups: While these groups have shown restraint so far, the prospect of Turkish proxies replacing Iranian-backed forces raises concerns. Their future trajectory and potential hostility toward Israel remain unclear, though the new Syrian Islamist leaders have made some conciliatory statements toward Israel.
Iranian Sleeper Cells: Although Iran has withdrawn its known forces, fears persist about sleeper cells left behind. Tehran may also attempt to reassert its influence via proxy networks in neighboring Iraq.
Geopolitical Shifts: Regional Winners and Losers. The collapse of the Assad regime has sent shockwaves through the region:
Iran’s Retreat: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has withdrawn from Syria, adding to Tehran’s growing domestic instability. This marks a major blow to Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance.” Tehran is trying to buy time and avert more losses by reaching out to American officials and Arab leaders. Iran’s long-term intentions require close monitoring.
Turkey’s Growing Influence: Turkish-backed rebels have emerged as a dominant force, raising questions about Ankara’s long-term ambitions in Syria. Will they stabilize the region or provoke new conflicts?
Russia’s Position at Risk: Russia’s key military assets in Syria face a threat from Turkey-aligned rebels. The Russians are speaking to the rebels and to Turkey to reach a compromise.
Opportunities Amid Chaos. Despite the uncertainty, there are reasons for cautious optimism:
Sectarian Restraint: Syrian rebel groups have largely avoided sectarian violence, signaling a potential shift toward more inclusive governance. Minority communities, including Christians, Druze, and Alawites, are cautiously hopeful about their future.
Iran Next? Assad’s collapse proves that entrenched regimes can be toppled. Regional TV screens are abuzz with debates on whether Iran’s 45-year-old regime could be next. This situation creates opportunities to build a future of justice, stability, and peace in the region.
What Washington Can Do. We in the United States have a critical role to play in shaping the post-Assad era:
Support Israel’s Defensive Actions: Israel’s border security measures are not just legitimate—they’re essential. Washington must stand firm against attempts to mischaracterize these actions as aggression.
Monitor Iran And Turkey: Turkey’s growing influence and Iran’s potential sleeper cells are key factors to watch.
Invest in Regional Stability: From empowering Syrian opposition groups, like the Kurds and Syrian civil society, to countering terrorism, U.S. engagement will be crucial in ensuring a peaceful and secure Middle East.