South Asia to Record 15M Global Infection Cases a Day: US Report
The analysis says that infections in Pakistan may arise to 240,000 by August 1 while the death toll could rise to 28,549
After correctly projecting covid-19 cases in the United States (US), the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations (IHME) stated that by mid-May, South Asia will report some 15 million cases daily if the current upsurge continues.
An American health institute in their pandemic and its impact report said, “Our latest projections show that the number of infections driven by the surge in India, and perhaps also driven by the surges in Bangladesh and Pakistan will be reaching 15 million a day globally”.
Looking at such figures, infections in Pakistan may peak to 240,000 by Aug 1 while the death toll could rise to 28,549.
And further analysis predicted that some 5,639 covid-19 deaths could occur in Sindh, 12,460 in Punjab, 6,978 in KP, 796 in Balochistan, 115 in Gilgit-Baltistan, 1,088 in AJK, and 1,473 in Islamabad.
Previously, the institute had projected that the deaths related to coronavirus pandemic in the US could exceed 200,000 by November 2020.
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Although the projection was strongly objected by the Trump administration, the forecast was proven accurate as the US death toll has exceeded 572,000 while global infections have climbed to over 32 million until now.
The latest reports by the institute warned South Asian regions regarding the infections and death tolls, which might rise before stabilizing by mid-May.
IHME reported, “The exponential rise in cases and deaths continues in India, and our analysis of seroprevalence surveys, is telling us that the infection detection rate is below 5%, maybe even around 3% to 4%”.
Moreover, the institute quoted, “This huge epidemic is likely to continue at least into the second week of May, but given the extraordinary volume of infections in India, covid-19 may run out of people to infect soon”.
Reviewing the current situation in India, the US report projected that there might be a decline in cases in the latter half of May but the situation in South Asian regions is alarming.
