A journalist Nazish Brohi claimed that the inaccurate monsoon contingency plan and weather predictions of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) caused massive destruction by floods in Sindh province.
In a Twitter thread, Nazish Brohi wrote, “Just finished reading Sindh PDMA’s 100 page+ monsoon contingency plan. Well… Hell. It was quite an okay plan actually. And it collapsed spectacularly. Why?”
She added, “Because its assumptions failed. The whole thing was based on meteorological department’s predictions, which were ‘above normal’ rainfall in Sindh & Punjab, and ‘slightly above normal’ in the rest of the country. Whereas got something like 500% more rain than that. In real terms: Govt planned for displacement of 13,950 people in Khairpur. As of now, 1,218,177 people are displaced there.”
Brohi detailed, “Planned 23 relief camps in Khairpur. Current number of camps: 482. Jacobabad:
Planned for 5619 displaced people. Current count, 256,584. Planned 18 camps, now running 112. Dadu:
Planned for 8240 people. Current count 409,343. Planned 78 camps, now running 154. And so on.”
“Expected total displacement across Sindh: 62,500 families. They stockpiled 70,700 tents. Current number of displaced families across Sindh: 3,997,869. Plan says also preparing for worse case scenario, which clearly no one was. It states ‘1% chance of once in a century flood’.”
“What happened at Met Dept? Online info says seasonal predictions much tougher in climate change, specially extreme weather events. Also says installing better radars, satellites, telemetry & weather modelling system improves forecasting to 80% accuracy.”
Nazish Brohi further said, ” I don’t know anything about Pakistan’s infrastructure for this. Of course, much could’ve been done, de-silting etc. But Pk cant cope with climate change consequences on its own – nor should it have to. Data from public documents, I read together – contingency plan and latest Sindh sitrep.”
Just finished reading Sindh PDMA’s 100 page+ monsoon contingency plan.
Well… Hell.
It was quite an okay plan actually. And it collapsed spectacularly.
Why? Because its assumptions failed.
Whole thing was based on meteorological department’s predictions, which were 1/— Nazish Brohi (@Nazish_Brohi) August 30, 2022
Pakistan is going through a terrible situation in the aftermath of torrential rains and floods in several parts that caused massive loss of lives, properties and crops.