Whilst the ongoing saga of Donald Trump contesting the US Presidential Election result plays out, and holding up a transition to a Biden Administration, I thought I’d take a look at the latest in negotiations between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) to reach a trade agreement after the UK’s departure in January of this year.
This is of some relevance to readers outside (and inside) of the EU as it will frame the UK’s relationship with the rest of the world, as extolled in the UK Government’s somewhat vacuous slogan of ‘Global Britain’.
Its detractors have seized upon the Global Britain label as being emblematic of nostalgia or imperial delusions (‘Empire 2.0’), and one whose scope for realisation has diminished markedly with an incoming Democrat administration in the US.
However, it drives home the fact that the UK has a lot of hard work to do to build international links to make up for the economic disruption caused by exiting the EU Single Market and Customs Union (which will happen come January 1st next year).
What then of current negotiations with the EU? As it stand, this week looms as a real ‘crunch week’ if an agreement is to be successfully negotiated in time to allow for the necessary ratification to take place before the Brexit transition period ends on January 1st next year.
Boris Johnson’s need to self-isolate (given that he has recently come into contact with a colleague who tested positive for Covid-19) complicates last-minute negotiations over the UK’s future relationship with the EU.
Rumours and counter-rumours swirl over personalities, with some suggesting that Johnson himself is the most hard-line of all ministers while others view the departure of Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain as increasing the chances of an agreement.
Ultimately there will need to be a degree of top-level political sign-off from Johnson and EU Chief Commissioner Ursula Von der Leyen (in conjunction with the leaders of the EU27) and the former having to self-isolate does complicate this somewhat.
Although teleconferencing and phone calls can allow for political intervention there is much less opportunity for personal chemistry to smooth an agreement.
In terms of the negotiations themselves, the issues are much the same as they have been since the summer.
The UK wants greater freedom over state aid whilst the EU wants quite strict stipulations.
If the issue of regulatory alignment cannot be finessed, however, expect the UK Government to play up fishing (protecting the rights of Scottish fishermen etc.)
Ironically, in terms of labour and environmental provisions, both sides appear to be willing to sign up to ‘non-derogation’ clauses, although this is difficult to know with certainty given the level of rumour around negotiations.
There are some difficulties around establishing a mechanism to “up-rate” these over time, but it appears that state aid is the bigger problem for the EU.
However, my own view is that the departure of Dominic Cummings will not significantly affect the trajectory of negotiations.
To the extent that Johnson’s supporters amongst the Parliamentary Conservative Party and (even more so) the membership of the Conservative Party are strongly pro-Brexit, anything that looks like continued adherence to EU regulatory strictures will be regarded by them as a betrayal of the true ‘Brexit cause’ of unimpeded national sovereignty.
This he will be under pressure from these quarters to maintain a hard negotiating stance so as to appease them.
And Brexit as an ‘economic’ project only has any logic if one wishes to reject the EU regulatory framework and oversight in favour of something else (e.g., US standards).
This has been directly alluded to by UK chief negotiator David Frost, amongst others.
The odds then of a “no deal” outcome to these negotiations have never been higher.
Professor Alex de Ruyter, Director, Centre for Brexit Studies, Birmingham City University.