The US Election: What will it Mean for International Community?

The past four years under President Donald Trump have been characterized by the US abandoning a commitment to multilateralism

Web DeskNovember 2, 2020

In my opening piece for News360, a Pakistan based News magazine website, I wanted to give some thought to the impending US Presidential Election (on Tuesday 3rd November) and its implications for the rest of the world, but particularly the UK, where I am based.

Suffice to say, the past four years under President Donald Trump have been characterized by the US abandoning a commitment to multilateralism and to upholding the international institutions that had been the underpinning of the (capitalist) post-World War Two international settlement.

Trump’s antipathy to bodies such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the European Union (EU) is well-attested enough; as has been his professed support for a Brexit-ing UK. In a similar fashion, in the pursuit of “making America Great” again, Trump has stoked up trade and security tensions with China, reneged on a nuclear weapons agreement with Iran and openly praised authoritarian rulers such as Kim Jong Un of North Korea .

However, his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic in the US has been seen by many as woefully inept and seeming priority of the economy over public health concerns has antagonised many who voted for him in 2016; namely, elderly Americans and white suburban women . As such, the polls tip a comfortable victory for Joe Biden, the Democrat candidate. That over 230,000 Americans have died from Covid-19 (the highest number in the world) to date only attests to the particular sense of urgency surrounding this presidential contest.

As such, a Trump victory next Tuesday looks improbable, but certainly not impossible. If Trump wins then we can expect the US to continue the sabre-rattling against China and abrogating its role as upholder of the international order, further fomenting instability in volatile regions such as the Middle-East and giving further succour to other populist leaders. Domestically, his policies will only serve to foment further division in the US, and could well undermine the Union itself if liberal states such as California and New York rise up against what would be an entrenched conservatism.In the UK a Trump victory against all odds would give encouragement to the Boris Johnson government to push harder against the EU and thereby increase the prospect of a “no deal” outcome to trade agreement negotiations, in the belief that a trade deal between the United States and the UK would be a priority for a returned Trump administration. That such a deal would have to get approval in the US Congress (where the Democrats currently hold a majority in the House of Representatives) seems to have eluded the Johnson government to date, with warnings from key Democrat figures (including Joe Biden himself) that a hard border in Northern Ireland would scupper any trade deal between the UK and US.

However, the prospect of Biden victory next Tuesday promises a return of the US to multilateralism and rebuilding bridges with estranged allies in the EU and elsewhere. For the UK Government this has belatedly become an alarming prospect, as a Biden administration would prioritise links with the EU (and particularly its most powerful member, Germany) over the so-called “Special Relationship” with Britain. In this schema, a shared commitment to tackling climate change, combatting Covid-19 and acting in concert against challenges to the liberal democratic order from China, Russia and others would become paramount.

For Johnson’s government then, this really leaves nowhere to go. The US’s strategic rivalry with China, whilst then probably being vouched in less volatile, inflammatory language than Trump has used to date, will not diminish and a Biden administration would be just as likely as Trump to exert pressure on the UK not to pursue enhanced economic links with China if it goes against US interests (as the recent furore over the role of Chinese IT giant, Huawei in contributing to a UK 5G network has demonstrated).

With the diminishing likelihood of a trade agreement with the US occurring any time soon (which in any case faces significant domestic opposition in the UK), a Brexit Britain would only be left with agreements with relatively minor trade partners such as Australia, and might then be forced to re-engage with the EU and compromise to attain a trade agreement. For all these reasons, the rest of the world (but even more so in the UK) will be anxiously awaiting the result of next Tuesday’s contest.

Professor Alex de Ruyter, Director, Centre for Brexit Studies, Birmingham City University, United Kingdom.

Web DeskNovember 2, 2020